LIB #2: Curated Predictions for 2022

Welcome to Edition #2! Expect two newsletters this week as I missed my weekend deadline for LIB #2.

There were many ‘Predictions for 2022’ articles and Twitter threads written about what we can expect in the new year, so I thought I’d curate some of the interesting articles/threads I found and chose one point from each one that resonated with me.

I also share a bonus Twitter thread I really enjoyed reading in 2021 that helped me figure out the long-term play for the metaverse.

Let’s get into it!

Curated Predictions for 2022:

1. The retail investor will continue to tip the scales against the experts and incumbents (HayStack by Semil Shah)

This was less of a “Predictions” article and more of a reflection of 2021, but there were some standout points, such as: 1/ the inflationary environment that became more evident (which should’ve been expected given the years of central banks pumping money into the economy) and 2/the ‘supply chain apocalypse’, especially for those who’ve gotten used to ‘on-demand everything’ (i.e. me).

In the first quarter of the year, we had /wallstreetbets on Reddit self-organizing against institutions which led to the GameStop saga (essentially, retail investors banded together against institutions who ‘shorted’ the stock to ensure the stock didn’t go under a specific amount - more info here). We are now seeing more retail investors being captured by the web3/crypto zeitgeist, especially as web3 gives more opportunities for users to benefit from the financial upside of a project.

This might be a great thing to say during a bull market, but as we’ve seen through numerous crypto/NFT projects, it’s very easy for the retail investor to be the one left ‘holding the bag’ once all of the inside players have left. One to continue monitoring.

The article can be found here: Looking Back On Tech, Startups, And VC In 2021

1. Brands will start actively participating in the metaverse and NFTs (Coinbase, Surojit Chatterjee, Chief Product Officer)

Very bullish on this - we’re already seeing brands from industries such as sports, fashion, FMCG and more get involved by releasing NFT collectible projects or collaborating with artists/influencers to establish a foothold. In 2022, I’m bullish on seeing more brands get involved in the space & start using NFTs to interact with their audience.

Some other notable predictions from Coinbase’s CPO include the maturity of DAO’s, NFT-based communities, Eth scalability improvements and more.

The article can be found here: 10 Predictions for Web3 and Cryptoeconomy for 2022

1. Carbon offsets will take off in 2022 and by the end of the year, we will have a global market in excess of $10bn (up 10x in 2022) (Fred Wilson, Union Square Ventures)

This is a perfect example of how decentralized finance tools in the crypto/web3 space (such as KlimaDAO, more info here) can unlock new forms of capital & the creation of markets galvanised by people-led incentives (things that matter to a group of peoples).

Other notable predictions: the ‘flippening’ will happen - Ethereum’s market cap will surpass Bitcoin’s in 2022. Ethereum’s merge in 2022 and the developer inflow we’re seeing into Ethereum-based applications (or ‘Dapps’) make this a prediction I’m bullish on.

The article can be found here: What is going to happen in 2022

1. Web3 and web2 tech starts to blend, as specific parts and layers of a given product are built on both web3 and web2 tech (ianDAOs, Syndicate Protocol)

This predictions twitter thread is GOLD - notable predictions include web3 projects combining DeFi, NFTs and DAOs together, 2/ everything will try to be turned into a DAO 3/ senior execs from web2 co’s will leave for web3 startups or decentralized protocols with no company.

A bonus twitter post from Ian that I enjoyed reading the comments around:

1. For this last one, I’m calling myself out that I’m cheating here as I came across a twitter thread that compiled a bunch of 2021 reviews and 2022 predictions, so I thought I’d include it and pick out a few points that resonated with me:

   1. Decentralized exchange volumes will outperform centralized exchange volumes again

   2. Layer-2 scaling solutions will witness significant growth in 2022

   3. Ransomware everywhere - mo money, mo security/privacy problems in DeFi

   4. Crypto gaming to continue on its crazy growth trajectory (I’m still bullish on Axie), especially as gaming studios will likely go all-in on crypto

Those are some of the predictions I vibed with the most - do you agree? Disagree? Have others you’re more bullish on?

Favourite Twitter Thread

I spent more time on Twitter than any other social platform in 2021. I came across Twitter threads on a daily basis that I loved, saved and studied to help me level up.

But the one I was inspired by the most was @punk6529’s Twitter thread on the pathway to an open metaverse.

Key reference points for me:

• 9/The importance of putting skin in the game on decentralization

• 11/ “If you want to build a ship, don't drum up the men to gather wood, divide the work and give orders. Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea.”

• 18/ Memes are the apex object of society

• 21/ NFTs are people & ‘memes > land’

• 43/ The 6529 fam roadmap/NFT

• 55/ Why MoMA is a landmark innovation in NYC

It’s an inspiring read which helped me to step back and look at the wider path towards a decentralized metaverse and the building blocks to make this happen. #Bullish6529

Last week’s article:

Incase you didn’t get a chance to read my article last week, I delved into the Bitcoin and Ethereum whitepapers and picked out the key lessons in my blog post below:

Till next week!

Fahim